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Euro finds relief from softer US Dollar ahead of Fed minutes
EUR/USD trades on the front foot on Tuesday, drawing support from a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD). However, concerns over France’s fiscal position keep the Euro’s (EUR) gains in check. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1255, up 0.29% on the day.
Asia FX: Tech-linked FX could outperform against US Dollar - MUFG
Michael Wan at MUFG argues that Asian currencies have been more resilient than others, supported by strong AI-related exports and a less acute Oil and diesel supply situation in the region.
Euro: Positioning-driven recovery prospects – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Macro Research team, led by Jayati Bharadwaj with contributions from Howard Du and Linda Cheng, argues that recent EUR/USD weakness has been driven by high Oil and diesel prices and French OAT concerns.
Canadian Dollar: Trade surplus supports cautious outlook – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen notes Canada’s trade balance swung to a $4.2 billion surplus in August, helped by higher energy prices and a rush of exports to the United States (US) ahead of new tariffs.
Canadian Dollar gains against US Dollar despite weaker Oil prices
USD/CAD falls 0.15% on Tuesday and trades around 1.4240 at the time of writing, pulling away slightly from recent highs near 1.4300. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) nevertheless remains vulnerable, weighed down by falling Oil prices as signs of improving global crude supply continue to emerge.
Brazilian Real: Political backdrop favors gains against US Dollar - TD Securities
TD Securities highlights a constructive Brazilian Real (BRL) backdrop, with diversified commodity exposure and strong carry. Their short-term fair value model places USD/BRL near 5.00 excluding political risk, but they favor the cross below 5.00 toward 4.60 longer-term.
United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) came in at 46.8, above forecasts (44.5) in October
United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) came in at 46.8, above forecasts (44.5) in October
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 58.2 below forecasts (65.2) in September
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 58.2 below forecasts (65.2) in September
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index down to 61.9 in September from previous 62.7
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index down to 61.9 in September from previous 62.7
Polish Zloty: Policy on hold as inflation stays near band – ING
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% at the 7 October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. They see November as the earliest point for any change, with fresh projections available, and currently anticipate two 25bp rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027 as inflation risks persist.
Japanese Yen: Range trade holds against US Dollar as Fed path questioned – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley says markets see limited scope for another Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy move at the October meeting, with expectations instead centred on December.
United States Redbook Index (YoY) above expectations (0%) in October 2: Actual (8.6%)
United States Redbook Index (YoY) above expectations (0%) in October 2: Actual (8.6%)
Indian Rupee: Bearish bias with RBI support – DBS
DBS Bank’s Radhika Rao notes that onshore financial markets are under pressure from global developments, with foreign portfolio investors pulling out around $6.3bn and USD/INR trading back above 96.00.