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British Pound: Overbought rally still has upside scope against US Dollar – UOB
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that GBP/USD surged as Sterling outperformed major peers, though short-term conditions are now overbought. Intraday, they expect consolidation within a tight band, but the 1–3 week view still allows for further gains toward higher resistance, with downside invalidation only on a break of revised strong support levels.
Hungarian Forint: Domestic improvement versus global headwinds – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports Hungary’s new fiscal path projects the deficit falling to 2.8% by 2030, aligned with Euro adoption plans, while the National Bank of Hungary keeps rates at 5.50% and stresses caution amid global uncertainties. EUR/HUF trades in a tight 362–364 range, with positioning corrections and future direction seen hinging on global developments and energy prices.
Romanian Leu: Budget credibility key to stability - Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes EUR/RON trading below 5.35 and 10-year RONGB yields under 7% after parliament approved the Niculescu government, ending a political deadlock. The bank highlights fragile political stability and a commitment to reduce the deficit below 3% by 2030.
Australian Dollar: RBA hawkish shift supports currency – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights rising rate hike expectations for the RBA as Australian inflation risks are seen as “materially worse” than earlier forecasts.
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.3%) in August
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (0.3%) in August
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (2%) in August: Actual (3.3%)
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (2%) in August: Actual (3.3%)
Japanese Yen: Trades in a narrow range against US Dollar – UOB
UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/JPY slipped modestly as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened, with intraday price action confined to a narrow band. They see the pair locked in a short-term range between nearby support and resistance, while the 1–3 month view warns that rapid downward momentum could drive further weakness, though reaching the January low remains uncertain.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Testing resistance at 1.3400 as bullish pressure grows
The British Pound (GBP) extends gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday after some hesitation in the early European session, as the positive impact from the hot consumer inflation figures was offset by the increment in public borrowing.
Canadian Dollar: Range-bound outlook against US Dollar with growth gap – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes discusses USD/CAD in light of revised IMF growth forecasts, highlighting weaker prospects for Canada versus the US. He notes the widening North American growth gap and the role of two-year rate differentials in guiding the Canadian Dollar. Historical ranges suggest USD/CAD is likely to stay broadly confined, with significant downside needing improved Canadian fundamentals.
British Pound: BoE hike prospects underpin resilience – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG expects the BoE to start its hiking cycle in November, with stronger UK activity and employment data and firmer inflation supporting this view. Headline CPI rose to 3.5% in September, and MUFG anticipates inflation above 4.0% next year after the energy price cap reset. These developments are seen as favourable for further Pound strength near term.
South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (3%) in August
South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 3.3%, above forecasts (3%) in August
United States MBA Mortgage Applications declined to -5.3% in October 16 from previous -2.7%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications declined to -5.3% in October 16 from previous -2.7%
France’s 10-year bond yield climbs above 5% stirring fears of a credit crisis
France’s ballooning debt, coupled with social unrest getting out of control, is posing a perfect storm in the bond market, and boosting the yield of the 10-year Obligation Assimilable du Trésor (OAT) to levels above 5% for the first time since 2002.