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British Pound: Potential EU re-engagement supports Sterling – ING
Chris Turner at ING discusses the British Pound as EUR/GBP moves noticeably lower, suggesting emerging Euro weakness and a changing UK narrative. He highlights UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech on moving closer to Europe, including a possible push to rejoin the EU after the next election.
Bank of Japan cautious on further hikes – Rabobank
Rabobank Research Global Economics & Markets reports that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is reluctant to continue rapid rate hikes, with September meeting notes revealing internal divisions and concerns over weak private consumption.
Brent Oil: Conflict-driven surge shapes bond stress – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid highlights that Brent Oil has surged sharply in Q3 as the US–Iran conflict re-escalated, driving a major global bond selloff and higher long-end yields. The report notes fresh gains in Brent and WTI, warns about benchmark roll effects on front contracts, and flags strength further out the futures curve, reinforcing inflation concerns and hawkish central bank risks.
Mexican Peso: Weakness and USMCA risk repricing – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s research notes that the Mexican Peso (MXN) had a disappointing September, losing over 4% against the Dollar since late month.
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (52) in September: Actual (51.9)
United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (52) in September: Actual (51.9)
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Bounces up from 0.8530 with the bearish trend intact
The Euro (EUR) ticks up against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, yet with the immediate bearish trend intact, after having depreciated about 0.8% over the previous three days.
US Treasuries: Cold War yield parallels – Rabobank
Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets notes that US Treasury yields ended Q3 sharply higher, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching levels last seen in 2002. The report highlights concerns from major market commentators about bonds and equities, and warns that another phase shift higher in long-dated US yields could take them into ranges seen during the late Cold War period.
Indonesian Rupiah weakens as US Dollar gains amid rising Treasury yields
USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 17,980 during European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) rises amid elevated oil prices, while Treasury yields continue to offset the support from lower Fed rate-hike odds.
Euro: Political stress and limited FX reaction – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Tatha Ghose examine how Euro political risks, especially in France, Spain and Italy, transmit to EUR/USD and a trade-weighted Euro.
Italy Unemployment above forecasts (5.7%) in August: Actual (6.2%)
Italy Unemployment above forecasts (5.7%) in August: Actual (6.2%)
Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 54, above expectations (0) in September
Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 54, above expectations (0) in September
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.9, above expectations (52.7) in September
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.9, above expectations (52.7) in September
WTI recovers strongly above $90 even as Middle East oil flows reach pre-war levels
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, claws back its slight early losses after attracting significant bids slightly below $88.00. The oil price has recovered vertically and has reclaimed the $90.00, trading 1.7% higher near $91.00 in the European trade.