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Aluminium: Short supply supports prices despite Gulf outages – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht says Aluminium’s recent correction has likely run its course, with prices rebounding as Chinese and LME inventories fall sharply and Gulf smelter outages persist.
Japanese Yen: Japan denies rate-pressure claims as data mixed – BNY
Geoff Yu notes Japan’s Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi rejected reports that the government is trying to push interest rates lower or pressure the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Oil: Deficits support higher prices – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay argues that Crude Oil is far from oversupplied, with high-frequency global and Chinese balances still pointing to tightness.
Canadian Dollar: Consolidation with stretched USD positioning – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively flat versus the US Dollar (USD) and trading close to their fair value estimate around 1.4158. They expect the recent deterioration in spreads to stabilize, easing downside pressure on the CAD.
United States Goods Trade Balance declined to $-105.89B in May from previous $-105.8B
United States Goods Trade Balance declined to $-105.89B in May from previous $-105.8B
Bank of Canada: Policy seen on hold through 2026 – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes that the Q2 2026 Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey showed resilient sales and investment expectations despite earlier Oil price shocks.
Polish Zloty: Dovish NBP tone risks downside – ING
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak argue that reduced prospects of further tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) should ease external pressure on the Zloty.
United States Redbook Index (YoY): 11.5% (July 3) vs 10.5%
United States Redbook Index (YoY): 11.5% (July 3) vs 10.5%
Euro holds steady as traders assess Fed and ECB interest rate paths
EUR/USD trades in a narrow range on Tuesday as traders await greater clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) and European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate paths. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1436, little changed on the day.
Japanese Yen: Fiscal unease and BoJ path – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the Japanese Yen (JPY) has firmed slightly, pulling USD/JPY back from 162.18 to 161.68, as comments from Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuichi attempt to calm fiscal worries.
Gold: Price dip seen limited as PBoC buying continues – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold fell to USD 4,120 per ounce after fresh Iranian attacks lifted TTF gas and Oil prices, but Fed rate expectations remain unchanged.
United States Goods and Services Trade Balance above expectations ($-78B) in May: Actual ($-77.6B)
United States Goods and Services Trade Balance above expectations ($-78B) in May: Actual ($-77.6B)
Canada Imports climbed from previous $72.44B to $72.86B in May
Canada Imports climbed from previous $72.44B to $72.86B in May