TRY: Inflation and easing threaten Lira – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes USD/TRY has broken above 49.0, continuing a pattern of defended levels being breached in step-jumps. He downplays the broader systemic impact of a Turkish stock market scandal and instead highlights surging fuel-driven inflation and the prospect of CBT rate cuts. Ghose warns that an easing cycle in an inflation-vulnerable economy is the key risk for the Lira.