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Federal Reserve: September hike odds reassessed – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen comments that weaker United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a drop in labour supply have reduced urgency for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, though policy remains data‑dependent.
Copper: Tariff-driven arbitrage reshapes COMEX-LME spread – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that Copper has shifted into a policy-driven trade as Section 232 tariffs reshape the COMEX-LME arbitrage.
Japanese Yen underperforms on surprising current account deficit
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is down against its major currency peers on Monday, trading 0.6% lower at around 158.80 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing during the European trading session.
British Pound tests 1.3500 as US Dollar struggles to shake off NFP shock
GBP/USD trades around 1.3495 on Monday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.04% on the day. However, the pair struggles to hold firmly above the psychological 1.3500 level after benefiting on Friday from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) triggered by disappointing United States (US) employment data.
Norwegian Krone: Policy hold guidance in focus – Nomura
Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak expect Norges Bank to keep its policy rate at 4.25% at the August meeting, citing softer underlying inflation and benign domestic data.
CEE FX: Data-heavy week under global pressure – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation.
Euro: Fed repricing supports gains against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists highlight that EUR/USD has squeezed above key resistance as Dollar weakness follows softer United States (US) employment data and reduced odds of a September Fed hike. The pair is seen slightly expensive versus nat gas but near fair value on 2-year spreads.
Australian Dollar: Hawkish RBA hold supports carry – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains one of the most attractive G10 currencies thanks to favorable carry and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Canadian Dollar: Recovery against US Dollar faces tariff risks – Commerzbank
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank highlights a strong Canadian labour market and improving Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and exports as signs of real-economy recovery, but warns this is fragile due to threatened US tariffs.
New Zealand Dollar stalls below 0.5900 as US Dollar regains safe-haven appeal
NZD/USD trades around 0.5895 on Monday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day.
Romanian Leu: Rating relief but NBR stays cautious – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance.
Euro advances against Canadian Dollar as Eurozone Investor Confidence rises in August
EUR/CAD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground, driven primarily by a resilient Euro (EUR) following positive Eurozone economic sentiment.
Euro holds gains near seven-week highs as economic sentiment improves
The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against a softer US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the EUR/USD pair trading at the 1.1560 area at the time of writing, consolidating gains a few pips below seven-week highs at 1.1773.