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Euro: Lower year-end target at 1.13 against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that EUR/USD is moderately undervalued versus short-term fundamentals, reflecting a persistent France-related risk premium that could widen if French bonds sell off further. He sees a challenging backdrop for Euro bulls, expects a possible test of 1.110, and notes that ING has revised its EUR/USD forecast down to 1.13 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027.
United States Redbook Index (YoY) came in at 10.4%, above forecasts (0%) in October 9
United States Redbook Index (YoY) came in at 10.4%, above forecasts (0%) in October 9
Australian Dollar: RBA inflation focus shapes outlook – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur explains that the Reserve Bank of Australia is increasingly focused on high inflation, with trimmed-mean inflation above its 2–3% target band for over a year.
Japanese Yen: Weakness may deepen toward 159.05 against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY continues to grind higher as wide US‑Japan yield differentials weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Intraday, the pair is expected to hold within 158.20–158.80.
US ADP Employment Change 4-week average drops to 24.75K
Private-sector hiring in the US has gained some pace in late September. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 24.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending September 26.
Copper: El Niño risks cap African supply growth – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass, authored by Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, highlights how El Niño 2026-2027 could constrain copper output in the African Copperbelt.
Germany Current Account n.s.a. above forecasts (€0B) in August: Actual (€10.3B)
Germany Current Account n.s.a. above forecasts (€0B) in August: Actual (€10.3B)
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Downtrend remains firm despite deeply oversold RSI
EUR/GBP reverses earlier gains on Tuesday as fiscal and political concerns in France limit the Euro’s (EUR) upside, while the technical picture also suggests sellers remain dominant.
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average above forecasts (0K) in September 19: Actual (24.75K)
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average above forecasts (0K) in September 19: Actual (24.75K)
Indian Rupee: RBI measures support near term – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan analyses recent Reserve Bank of India actions and their impact on the Indian Rupee. He notes that RBI’s new FX and liquidity measures have sharply strengthened spot USD/INR, but also pushed stress into forwards, offshore NDFs and bonds.
British Pound: Firmer ground with BoE hike risk – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING highlights a supportive backdrop for the Pound, with EUR/GBP now expected to trade in a 0.84–0.85 range for several months as Euro-specific risks persist and the Bank of England signals readiness to hike. While ING sees BoE expectations as too hawkish for 2027, one or two hikes look increasingly likely, and the budget risk is seen as manageable for Sterling.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: looking for direction between 209.00 and 210.00
The British Pound (GBP) retraces previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday, and returns to the mid-range of the 209.00s after bouncing from lows at 208.90 earlier in the day.
Japanese Yen: Stronger footing with intervention risk – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has firmed modestly, pulling USD/JPY back toward 158.00 and keeping it below the 200-day moving average near 158.50.