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Japanese Yen weakens as renewed Middle East tensions lift US Dollar
USD/JPY trades around 162.55 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. After an initial pullback in the US Dollar (USD), the pair regains momentum as geopolitical concerns return to the forefront and support the Greenback.
Canadian Dollar: Rate divergence weighs CAD against US Dollar – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists note that softer Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is lifting USD/CAD as rate divergence remains a key driver. They argue broad US Dollar (USD) strength should limit USD/CAD downside below 1.40 and see higher Oil prices as CAD-supportive on crosses but not versus USD.
LatAm FX: Carry supports resilience against US Dollar - BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.
Australian Dollar: Carry and growth support potential rebound – HSBC
HSBC strategists argue AUD/USD has room to rise into 2027, supported by Australia’s relatively high cash and government bond yields, which make the Australian Dollar attractive on a carry basis within G10 FX.
Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.
New Zealand Dollar gains as softer Fed outlook offsets Middle East tensions
NZD/USD moves higher on Monday and trades around 0.5850 at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following the latest US inflation data.
Canadian Dollar: Inflation cools as BoC stays patient – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.
British Pound: Sterling shifts into broader range against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports GBP/USD slipping but lacking strong downside momentum, with intraday trade expected between 1.3420 and 1.3475. The prior bullish view has faded after a break of 1.3450 support, and the pair is now seen in a 1.3385–1.3495 range.
Fed: On-hold stance with upside hike risk – TD Securities
TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.
Australian Dollar: Labor data seen reinforcing RBA pause – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Australia’s June labor force report to show a modest 15k job gain and unemployment steady at 4.4%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) projection.
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ tightening cycle underpins Kiwi – HSBC
HSBC strategists see NZD/USD supported by New Zealand’s strengthening growth data and an aggressive Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiking path. The RBNZ has begun raising rates and HSBC Economics projects 25bp hikes per quarter to 3.50% by Q3 2027.
Euro: Policy divergence supports gains against US Dollar - DBS
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the Euro (EUR) may find support in coming weeks as markets reassess geopolitical risks and central bank divergence.
British Pound: Market calm under Burnham’s cautious agenda – ING
James Smith at ING highlights that UK markets have reacted calmly to Andy Burnham becoming prime minister, with risk premia contained as investors expect no major policy shocks this year.