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A German landslide moved the Euro by nothing at all
EUR/USD holds above 1.1600, seven pips above where Monday opened. The pair has had three chances to move over four sessions and has taken none of them. Both central banks are priced to raise rates this month for the same energy shock, and a rate gap that is not moving does not move a currency.
United States: Sideways growth and oil shock risks – TD Securities
TD Securities expects US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the prior Oil shock lingers and the Iran conflict poses stagflationary risks. GDP is forecast to end 2026 at 2.1% Q4/Q4, with unemployment around 4.2%. The bank assigns a 25% probability to a US recession over the next year.
The Japanese Yen has stopped trading the Federal Reserve
USD/JPY trades just above 154.00 after giving up close to two Yen on Monday, its weakest in six months. Nothing confirms an intervention, and Tokyo has no level left to defend at six-month Yen highs.
British Pound climbs as USD fades, Hormuz risk keeps Fed in play
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises over 0.23% amid thin trading, as US markets remain closed for the Labor Day weekend, while the US-Iran conflict escalated, with both countries exchanging strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3541.
New Zealand Dollar struggles to gain traction as cautious RBNZ outlook weighs
NZD/USD trades around 0.5880 on Monday at the time of writing, posting a modest 0.06% decline on the day after two consecutive days of gains.
United Kingdom: BoE holds but risks later cuts – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s UK team notes weakening housing demand as mortgage approvals fall to late-2023 lows, while business lending remains firm and wage expectations show limited second-round effects.
Australian Dollar hits three-month high as RBA rate hike bets intensify
AUD/USD advances on Monday, gaining 0.22% on the day to trade around 0.7220 at the time of writing, after reaching its highest level in more than three months.
Japanese Yen: September BoJ decision shapes path – HSBC
HSBC highlights that markets now expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten policy more quickly, with overnight index swaps implying about 75bp of cumulative hikes by April 2027 and assigning odds to a move at the 18 September meeting.
Bank of Canada: Rates outlook and inflation risks – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that the Bank of Canada adopted a more hawkish tone, emphasizing upside inflation risks even as core inflation stays subdued.
Eurozone: Resilient growth, worrying inflation – ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO economists Bill Diviney and Jan-Paul van de Kerke expect Eurozone growth to remain resilient despite a renewed energy shock, supported by German fiscal spending and solid underlying activity.
United Kingdom: Growth pace cools after hot start – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan expect United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to have slipped slightly in July after strong growth earlier in 2026. They forecast a modest monthly contraction led by services and production, with construction only marginally higher.
Japanese Yen hits six-and-a-half-month high on hawkish BoJ bets
USD/JPY extends its steep decline on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) rallies against the US Dollar (USD), supported by hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations, capital repatriation and the unwinding of Yen-funded carry trades.
United States: Inflation risks but still contained - TD Securities
TD Securities projects August Core CPI at 0.19% m/m and 2.3% y/y, with services driving gains and core goods slightly negative. Headline CPI is seen at 0.37% m/m and 3.4% y/y on higher energy and food.