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Bank of England: Rate hold baseline with conflict risks – Societe Generale
Sam Cartwright at Societe Generale argues recent easing in United Kingdom (UK) services inflation and labour market loosening support the Bank of England’s wait-and-see stance. The baseline view is Bank Rate stays at 3.75% through 2026 to restrain underlying inflation.
South Korean Won: Growth-driven recovery offers policy lesson – ING
Chris Turner at ING explains that Korea’s earlier massive portfolio outflows and a weaker Korean Won (KRW) pushed USD/KRW to 1560 in June, despite a large current account surplus.
Chinese Yuan: Policy support eyed as growth slows – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that China’s July data showed weaker Industrial Production and Retail Sales, underscoring fading momentum at the start of Q3.
Australian Dollar: Shallow uptrend risk into next year – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes AUD/USD is currently on the back foot, with the Australian Dollar the weakest G10 currency on a one-day view. Despite market doubts, Rabobank still expects one more Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike this year.
Indonesian Rupiah: Stability-focused BI stance – UOB
UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja notes that Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI Rate at 5.75% in August, prioritizing Rupiah and macro-financial stability over growth.
United Kingdom: Constrained backdrop and BoE risks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Sam Cartwright argues that a new UK Prime Minister has not altered the constrained fiscal backdrop, limiting ambitions on housebuilding, social care, investment and defence.
China: Policy support and structural shifts – HSBC
HSBC strategists review July data and the latest China Politburo guidance. Retail sales and Fixed Asset Investment softened, while Industrial Production and exports were supported by AI-related and green technology demand.
Euro: Domestic demand resilience supports EUR – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s warning that Europe’s post-war growth model is eroding as global trade fragments and cheap energy fades.
Canada: EU protectionist shift challenges diversification – NBC
National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) Angelo Katsoras argues that Canada’s push to diversify exports away from the United States (US) toward the European Union (EU) faces growing obstacles as EU industrial policy turns more protectionist.
Japanese Yen gains as US Dollar retreats ahead of FOMC Minutes
USD/JPY edges lower on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum and retreats toward the June lows touched earlier this week. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 159.10, down 0.32% on the day.
Indonesian Rupiah: Policy continuity supports currency – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Galvin Chia and Kunal Kundu note that Bank Indonesia kept the BI rate at 5.75%, with deposit and lending facility rates unchanged, reinforcing Rupiah stability and inflation control.
British Pound: Carry appeal keeps Sterling resilient as BoE stays on hold – ING
ING’s Chris Turner, citing UK economist James Smith, notes that July United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) had limited impact on EUR/GBP, with benign food inflation and only a modest uptick in the Bank of England’s core services measure to 3.8%.
South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 2.3% to 1.6% in June
South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 2.3% to 1.6% in June