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Forecasting the upcoming week: FOMC Minutes take center stage next week
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its slide on Friday, holding below 100.00 at fresh lows after a fourth straight soft US data print.
The Dollar Index breaks on the fourth consecutive soft print
The Dollar Index took a payroll contraction on August 7, a cooler consumer price reading on August 12 and a flat producer price reading on August 13 without surrendering its range. Friday's data finally did it.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average learns who paid for disinflation
Two cooling inflation readings carried the broad market to a record on Thursday, taking the S&P 500 through 7,800 for the first time, and Friday morning supplied the explanation for where the cooling came from.
US Dollar: Data-driven outlook in focus – MUFG
MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee note that upcoming US economic data will be crucial for the US Dollar outlook.
US Dollar: Medium-term depreciation risks build – Nordea
Nordea strategists argue that while near-term risks for the Dollar are broadly balanced, the longer-term outlook remains negative.
US Dollar: Lower short-term yields weigh on the Greenback – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) is trading on a softer footing as Fed rate hike expectations are scaled back following weaker labour data and a mixed United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
United States Retail Sales contracted by 0.6% MoM in July
Retail Sales in the United States decreased to $763.6 billion in July, a 0.6% decline compared to the previous month, the US Census Bureau reported on Friday. This print reversed the 0.2% expansion recorded in the previous month and came in below market expectations (+0.1%).
US Dollar: Mixed data and higher yields shape outlook – Danske Bank
Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes that US July PPI came in slightly below expectations, with volatile trade and transport services dragging the headline lower while broader services stayed firm.
US Dollar Index: Range-bound Dollar as Fed odds ease – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the USD index (DXY) is trading near the lower end of its recent 99.50–100.00 range as cooling United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have cut implied odds of a September Fed rate hike.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index dips to 51 in August
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in August to 51 from 55.2 in the previous month, missing economists’ expectations (54.5) and signalling extra weaknening in public confidence.
US Dollar: Looking for a shift in Fedspeak – ING
ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that post-CPI summer conditions are suppressing FX volatility and keeping the Dollar broadly stable. They still see scope for a weaker Dollar as market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening look overstated.
US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY declines to 99.75-99.70 amid receding Fed hike bets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, continues to lose ground through the first half of the European session on Friday and retreats further from a two-week high, touched the previous day.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Picks up above 1.3500 amid generalised US Dollar weakness
The British Pound (GBP) pares losses against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as a run of soft US inflation figures and growing signs of labour market deterioration have cast doubt about the odds for an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.