European Central Bank: October skip and limited hikes – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY Mellon expects the ECB to skip an October rate hike and possibly be done for the year, citing clear guidance on second‑round effects, emerging sovereign risks and French budget uncertainty. He argues that any balance‑sheet response, such as ending quantitative tightening or using the Transmission Protection Instrument, would effectively mark the end of rate‑based tightening as policy tools must not work at cross‑purposes.