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United Kingdom: Closer EU ties back in focus – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Christopher Graham discusses how Prime Minister Burnham is reopening debate on the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU ahead of next month’s UK-EU summit. Options range from closer cooperation within Labour’s red lines to potentially rejoining the customs union, single market or EU. Public regret over Brexit and evolving EU industrial policy are strengthening arguments for reintegration.
United States: October inflation seen cooling – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir project that US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise 0.30% month-on-month in October 2026, slowing from September’s 0.65% gain, with gasoline and food still contributing. They expect core CPI to increase 0.21% and translate into a 0.24% rise in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, as core goods and services inflation moderate and shelter cools.
Canadian Dollar recovery stalls after inflation falls short of expectations
USD/CAD pauses its decline on Monday after the Canadian Dollar (CAD) briefly strengthened to its highest level in a month at the weekly open.
Oil: Geopolitics drive price swings – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily notes Oil prices surged as reports of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hit sentiment, before easing after President Trump waived Graham Act sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy. The analysts highlight that potential future sanctions on major buyers of Russian crude and gas could significantly disrupt trade and keep Oil volatility elevated.
Indian Rupee: Intervention concerns shape outlook – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note USD/INR remains below 95 in Asia after a 1.9% rally last week, supported by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures for Oil importers and speculation curbs. They highlight reported US Dollar (USD) selling by state-run banks and warns RBI’s direct supply to Oil companies could be constrained. FX reserves have dropped sharply and Indian Rupee (INR) shorts in the Reuters poll are at multi‑month highs.
British Pound: BoE tightening seen over-priced – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad expects UK September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and August labour data to be pivotal for Bank of England (BoE) pricing, with markets already discounting a 25 bps hike to 4.00% in November and 100 bps over twelve months.
Silver Price Forecast: Descending channel keeps sellers in control
Silver (XAG/USD) kicks off the week on a bullish note but struggles to extend its gains as the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields pause their decline following last week’s correction from recent highs.
Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM): 0.1% (September) vs previous 0.2%
Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM): 0.1% (September) vs previous 0.2%
Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in September
Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in September
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.1%, below expectations (3.2%) in September
Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.1%, below expectations (3.2%) in September
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) fell from previous 2.4% to 2.2% in September
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) fell from previous 2.4% to 2.2% in September
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.1% to 0% in September
Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.1% to 0% in September
US Dollar: AI jitters soften haven appeal – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that recent AI-driven equity volatility has triggered a sharp drop in front-end US rates, but he does not see this as the start of a major Dollar downtrend. He argues the Dollar may lag other G10 currencies if tech-led stock instability persists, yet still sees scope for DXY to revisit 101.0 in coming weeks.