Market News
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British Pound: Labour data seen backing BoE hold – TD Securities
TD Securities expects the UK labour market to remain soft but stable in June, with employment rising 100k on a three‑month basis and unemployment edging down to 4.7%. Headline average weekly earnings are forecast to slow to 4.0%, while ex‑bonus pay holds at 3.4%.
Swedish Krona: Riksbank seen on cautious hawkish hold – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% for a seventh consecutive meeting while leaving the door open to a later hike as inflation runs above projections.
Turkish Lira: Market doubts disinflation and Lira stability – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's (CBRT) survey shows market participants revising inflation forecasts higher and expecting only gradual rate cuts from current effective levels.
Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations support JPY against US Dollar – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Lee Hardman report that Japanese government bond yields are rising despite weaker-than-expected GDP, as markets focus on prospects for further Bank of Japan rate hikes.
Federal Reserve: Changing communications and higher volatility – TD Securities
TD Securities’ James Rossiter argues that the Federal Reserve is leading a structural shift away from detailed forward guidance and explicit reaction functions, forcing markets to infer policy from incoming data.
British Pound: Data-heavy week risks BoE repricing – ING
Chris Turner at ING notes that a busier United Kingdom (UK) data calendar, including jobs, wages and July Consumer Price Index (CPI), could challenge the 55bp of Bank of England (BoE) tightening still priced in.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Conquers 1.1600 as bulls retain control above 100-SMA, 50% Fibo.
The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's bounce from the vicinity of the 1.1500 psychological mark and gains strong follow-through positive traction on Monday.
Canadian Dollar: CPI and US tariffs weigh on outlook – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Canada’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) to keep core inflation below 2%, reinforcing an extended Bank of Canada (BoC) pause.
Polish Zloty: Slow NBP hawkish shift weighs on PLN - Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Polish headline and core inflation have re-accelerated, with seasonally adjusted monthly rates now clearly above target. This makes earlier signals from National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski about possible rate cuts obsolete.
British Pound hits three-month highs at 1.3570 amid generalised US Dollar weakness
The British Pound (GBP) extends gains for the second consecutive day on Monday, as investors cut back US Dollar (USD) long positions, amid a dovish repricing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy.
Japanese Yen: Downside bias within 158.00–160.20 band against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes that USD/JPY price action remains choppy, with the pair closing around 159.30 after a dip to 158.58. Intraday direction is unclear, with trading expected between 158.80 and 159.60.
Australian Dollar gains against Japanese Yen despite weak economic data from China
AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 113.20 during the European hours on Monday.
Australian Dollar: Solid carry as RBA pause risk grows – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that upcoming Australian wage and labour data are unlikely to shift Reserve Bank of Australia pricing, with futures only partly discounting one final hike.