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Forex Today: US Dollar rises as Gulf tensions lift, Oil and Canadian inflation cool
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises around 0.2% toward 101.00 as higher United States (US) Treasury yields and escalating tensions in the Middle East support the Greenback.
Crude Oil spends Monday selling the war, then buys the revenge post
Crude Oil compressed its entire 2026 personality into a single Monday tape.
Asia FX: Oil rebound pressures INR and THB – MUFG
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that higher Oil prices and persistent inflation risks are weighing on Asian currencies, with the Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) underperforming against the US Dollar.
Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.
China: Chinese AI models challenge US-led economics – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists analyses China’s AI (Artificial intelligence) ecosystem, noting that Chinese models are rapidly catching up in capability while being priced near mid-tier US systems.
Gold edges lower as Middle East conflict boosts the US Dollar
Gold price edges down some 0.19% on Monday as hostilities between the US and Iran extended, following a short-lived truce that began after both countries agreed to a ceasefire, which was broken nine days ago. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,011.
Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts ($2060M) in June: Actual ($2M)
Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts ($2060M) in June: Actual ($2M)
Copper: Speculators rebuild longs on tight supply – TD Securities
TD Securities’ commodity strategy team highlights that, after a five‑week reduction in Copper longs, speculators have resumed adding net length, supported by firm Chinese premiums, low arrivals and inventory draws on the LME and SHFE.
Canadian Dollar falls as softer Canadian inflation weighs on the Loonie
USD/CAD trades higher near the 1.4060 area on Monday, recovering from below 1.4000 as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens following softer-than-expected domestic inflation data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also rises around 0.2% near 101.00, providing additional support to the pair.
United States Dollar Index advances as Middle East tensions drive demand
The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher on Monday as heightened tensions in the Middle East drive demand for the safe-haven Greenback.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD attempts to stabilize above $55.00
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday as buyers defend the $55.00 mark after the metal briefly slipped below it on Friday, touching its lowest level since December 2025. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $56.85, up nearly 1.50% on the day.
Trump declares retaliation against Iran automatic in Truth Social post
Donald Trump opened the week on Truth Social with a promise that every American soldier killed by Iran will be repaid many times over, a directive he says has been passed to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine, and every leader in the military.
British Pound slips as Burnham fiscal pledge fails to lift Sterling
The Pound Sterling reverses course and turns negative on the day as Andy Burnham is named the new Prime Minister and reassures that he will stick to the fiscal rules set by the former Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who just resigned. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3425, after hitting a daily high of 1.3481.