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Forex Today: Fedspeak, Jobless Claims and ISM data steal the show
The US Dollar (USD) has traded with marginal gains, coming under pressure following daily tops near 101.50 as investors evaluated softer-than-expected PCE data in August and trimmed some bets on extra tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the following months.
Euro finds support as softer US PCE data prompts traders to trim Fed rate-hike bets
EUR/USD holds modest gains on Wednesday as traders assess the latest economic data from both sides of the Atlantic. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1363, up 0.20% on the day, after touching 1.1312 on Tuesday, its lowest level since May 2025.
What is driving the US Dollar to multi-month highs against the Euro as PCE data approaches?
EUR/USD has dropped to its lowest level since mid-2025 as the US Dollar (USD) maintains broad-based momentum, propelled by elevated long-dated US Treasury yields and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy.
Experts agree: The fundamental background hints at further US Dollar appreciation
The US Dollar (USD) is showing a moderately softer tone on Wednesday, weighed down by the recent pullback in US Treasury yields and some dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams.
US Dollar: Upcoming data to support hawkish Fed stance – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the Dollar has eased from recent highs as lower Oil prices and comments from New York Fed President John Williams temper rate expectations. However, upcoming US August PCE and September ADP data are expected to show sticky inflation, stronger consumer spending and resilient labor demand, which BBH says should reinforce the Fed’s hawkish bias and support further USD strength.
US Dollar: Coin flip for October rate hike – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Eugene Leow assesses USD Rates ahead of the October FOMC meeting, noting investors see a near-even chance of a back-to-back Fed hike.
EUR/USD: Range view holds as Dollar doubts grow – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank argues EUR/USD is likely to hold within its 1.13–1.20 yearly range rather than break lower, pushing back against consensus Dollar bullishness. The bank cites resilient global growth, peak USD yield support and an energy shock that looks increasingly priced.
US Dollar: Rally seen stretched into year-end – TD Securities
TD Securities’ TD Macro Research Insight argues the US Dollar rally is stretched against major currencies and is unlikely to break to new highs in current Fed hiking cycle. Month-end equity rebalancing flows, weaker-than-consensus US payrolls, and broadly short G10 FX positioning versus USD support a bearish Dollar regime, with risks from a potential US diesel export ban and geopolitical escalation.
Dow Jones futures advance as Fed rate hike expectations cool
Dow Jones futures gain by 0.39% to trade near 51,890 during European hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures advance by 0.23% to trade around 7,750, while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.17% to trade near 30,660.
US Dollar: Fragile strength hinges on Fed – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes EUR/USD has dropped to its lowest level since mid-2025 as Dollar strength is driven by rising US rate expectations and a higher probability of an October Fed hike than an ECB move.
US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Possibility of breakout above 101.80 hinges on US data
The US Dollar (USD) trades slightly lower against its key currency peers on Wednesday. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenbacks value against six major currencies, is down 0.11% to near 101.28. Still, the asset is close to its two-month high of 101.64.
Breaking: United States private sector employment rises by 90K in September vs. 70K expected
Employment in the United States' (US) private sector increased by 90K in September, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 36K increase recorded in August (revised from 38K) and came in better than the market expectation of 70K.
US Dollar: Strength persists on higher yields – ING
ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note the US Dollar remains strong despite softer US data, as rising long-dated US yields weigh on global risk sentiment and support the currency.