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South African Rand: SARB resolve key for rand – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur sees it as almost certain that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will hike 25 bps to 7.25%, reversing a third of its 2024–25 easing after inflation re-accelerated on fuel and core components above target.
Canadian Dollar: Retail sales set to beat consensus – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists look for Canadian Retail Sales to rise 1.1% month-on-month in May, slightly above the 1.0% consensus, driven by higher gasoline prices and a rebound in core spending.
Turkey CBRT Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (37%)
Turkey CBRT Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (37%)
British Pound holds losses below 1.3400 as PM Burnam stokes fiscal worries
The British Pound (GBP) consolidates losses below 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, on track for a 0.6% weekly decline, following a reversal from 1.3558 highs last week.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Euro trims gains but holds above previous highs at 186.32
The Euro (EUR) is giving away previous gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, as investors position for the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.
Turkish Lira: High carry stays attractive as easing delayed – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) to keep its 37.00% rate unchanged, with geopolitical tensions, Oil above $90 and tariff changes limiting scope to absorb higher energy costs.
Australian Dollar: Jobs strength keeps RBA hike priced – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD is consolidating near 0.7000 after strong Australia employment data. Solid June job gains keep Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike expectations alive, with cash rate futures now virtually fully pricing a move to 4.60% by year‑end.
Euro: ECB seen hiking in September – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues the European Central Bank (ECB) can delay action today but will keep a hawkish tone as inflation stays near 3% and core pressures may even rise.
Norwegian Krone: Limited upside from Norges Bank flows – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that while Norwegian Krone (NOK) should find demand from improved Oil and gas terms of trade and a relatively hawkish Norges Bank, elevated holdings and modest FX purchases limit upside.
Swiss Franc weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar
USD/CHF extends its gains for the fourth successive day, trading around 0.8150 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after recovering its daily losses amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States (US)-and Iran.
Analysts agree: Hawkish ECB expectations are likely to keep Euro supported
The Euro (EUR) remains steady above 1.1400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, showing a surprising resilience to the surging Oil prices and the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
Japanese Yen: Energy shock drives weaker currency – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that rising Oil and natural gas prices are pressuring the Japanese Yen (JPY), with USD/JPY hitting fresh year-to-date highs above 163.00.
Australian Dollar: RBA tone may turn hawkish – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights a strong Australian labor market, with 76,000 jobs added and participation back near historic highs, prompting markets to raise the implied probability of an RBA hike to 30%.