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Canadian Dollar gains against US Dollar despite weaker Oil prices
USD/CAD falls 0.15% on Tuesday and trades around 1.4240 at the time of writing, pulling away slightly from recent highs near 1.4300. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) nevertheless remains vulnerable, weighed down by falling Oil prices as signs of improving global crude supply continue to emerge.
US Dollar: Softer jobs data shapes Fed path – UOB
UOB’s Alvin Liew highlights that weaker US September Payrolls and softer wage growth have reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike, with markets now focused on September CPI.
Brazilian Real: Political backdrop favors gains against US Dollar - TD Securities
TD Securities highlights a constructive Brazilian Real (BRL) backdrop, with diversified commodity exposure and strong carry. Their short-term fair value model places USD/BRL near 5.00 excluding political risk, but they favor the cross below 5.00 toward 4.60 longer-term.
United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) came in at 46.8, above forecasts (44.5) in October
United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) came in at 46.8, above forecasts (44.5) in October
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 58.2 below forecasts (65.2) in September
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 58.2 below forecasts (65.2) in September
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index down to 61.9 in September from previous 62.7
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index down to 61.9 in September from previous 62.7
Polish Zloty: Policy on hold as inflation stays near band – ING
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% at the 7 October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. They see November as the earliest point for any change, with fresh projections available, and currently anticipate two 25bp rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027 as inflation risks persist.
Japanese Yen: Range trade holds against US Dollar as Fed path questioned – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley says markets see limited scope for another Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy move at the October meeting, with expectations instead centred on December.
Japanese Yen underperforms despite signals of further BoJ tightening
USD/JPY holds firm on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades on the defensive across the board. However, a softer US Dollar (USD), weighed down by a pullback in US Treasury yields, and intervention concerns around the 160 level limit the upside, keeping the pair range-bound.
Gold: Downtrend eyes $4,000 support zone – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note that Gold has extended its pullback after failing to hold above the 200-day moving average near $4,510–$4,540. Prices are drifting toward an interim projection around $4,095, with a break of this level seen opening downside toward $4,000 and the June/July troughs at $3,960–$3,940, which mark the lower boundary of a critical multi-month support range.
United States Redbook Index (YoY) above expectations (0%) in October 2: Actual (8.6%)
United States Redbook Index (YoY) above expectations (0%) in October 2: Actual (8.6%)
Indian Rupee: Bearish bias with RBI support – DBS
DBS Bank’s Radhika Rao notes that onshore financial markets are under pressure from global developments, with foreign portfolio investors pulling out around $6.3bn and USD/INR trading back above 96.00.
US Dollar: Resilient but upside seen limited – TD Securities
TD Securities notes the US economy and labor market are resilient but not overheating, leading them to push Fed rate hike calls to December 2026 and March 2027. They believe market pricing for Fed hawkishness has peaked and see it as hard to derive persistently bullish Dollar signals from Fed and data alone, even as their scorecard still ranks the USD highest.