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Norwegian Krone: Range trading view holds against Euro – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that softer Norwegian inflation has tempered expectations for further Norges Bank tightening, even after May’s 25 bps hike to 4.25%.
European Central Bank: Oil risks support a September rate hike – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s rates team expects higher oil prices and weak growth signals to shape Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A July rate hike is effectively ruled out, while markets have fully priced in another 25bp move in September.
United Kingdom: Softer CPI supports prolonged BoE hold – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Julie Ioffe expects United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.7% year-on-year in June, in line with consensus but below Bank of England (BoE) projections, as lower fuel prices offset sticky Services. Core CPI is seen at 2.6% and Services at 3.6%.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bearish Flag formation backs more downside
The Euro (EUR) trades marginally lower near 1.1432 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair edges down as the US Dollar recovers its early losses.
New Zealand Dollar: Sticky inflation supports more RBNZ hikes – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects New Zealand Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) to remain well above target, with quarterly and annual readings only slightly below the RBNZ’s own projections.
Australian Dollar picks up above 0.7000 as risk aversion eases
The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as comments from Iranian Foreign Minister Esmaeil Baghaei offered a glimmer of hope for de-escalation in Iran and pushed Oil prices down from one-month highs.
Iran: Mediators propose 10-day cessation of strikes to revive US-Iran interim deal
According to a senior Iranian official, mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the interim deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
Oil: Geopolitical shocks tighten crude and diesel markets – Rabobank
Rabobank says renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, Russia-Ukraine strikes and CPC loading disruptions have lifted crude and refining margins sharply. Brent briefly topped $90, while severe diesel-market tightness is feeding through to export policy and U.S. pump prices.
Indian Rupee: RBI support as INR nears record low against US Dollar – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened onshore and offshore to support the Indian Rupee (INR) as USD/INR trades close to its all‑time high.
US Dollar Index: Higher energy supports DXY recovery – ING
ING’s Chris Turner notes that deteriorating Gulf headlines and higher energy prices are keeping the Dollar supported, even if US Dollar Index (DXY) remains about 1% below its June peak.
WTI Oil rally takes a breather as Tehran leaves the door open to diplomacy
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $81.30 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.54% on the day as investors take some profits following the commodity's sharp rally in recent weeks.
British Pound: Sterling rally seen nearing exhaustion against Euro – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue recent British Pound (GBP) strength looks stretched as markets price in fiscal discipline from the new UK government under Andy Burnham.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD nears the tip of a triangle formation at the $4,000 area
Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, as the US Dollar recovery stalled and Oil prices pulled back from highs. The precious metal remains capped below a descending trendline resistance, but downside attempts remain supported above the $3,965 area, thus forming a descending triangle pattern