Market News
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Norwegian Krone: Policy rate seen on hold from Norges Bank – Nordea
Nordea economists Kjetil Olsen and Sara Midtgaard expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate at 4.25% at next week’s meeting. They highlight that June core inflation was well below the Bank’s projection and see July data remaining subdued.
Oil: Hormuz risks keep prices in focus – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton discusses recurring Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on Oil and Brent.
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Cross remains capped near bottom of bullish channel
The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday but remains capped below the bottom of an ascending channel at the 0.8575 area following Thursday and Friday's declines.
US Dollar: Labour data and hawkish risks in focus – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists outlines a United States (US) macro backdrop where the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates but three officials dissented for a hike, keeping inflation concerns alive. They expect two further 25bp increases this year and closely watch upcoming labour and activity data.
Japanese Yen: Joint intervention supports yen outlook – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has strengthened as Japan and the US conducted joint intervention to counter recent volatility. He highlights planned use of the Federal Reserve’s FIMA Repo Facility, US euro-to-yen reallocations, and Japan’s sizeable FX reserves.
Australian Dollar comes under pressure as US Dollar regains ground
AUD/USD falls to around 0.7000 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.30% on the day, as a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) outweighs the support provided by Chinese economic data for the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Federal Reserve: Data driven rate path – HSBC
HSBC strategists note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) left policy rates unchanged in July, with markets now assigning a two-thirds probability to a September hike.
WTI stays lower near $78.50 ahead of US-Iran peace talks 2.0
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.4% lower at around $78.50 during the European trading session on Monday. The Oil price holds onto its opening losses, driven by the announcement of a ceasefire 2.0 between the United States (US) and Iran.
Gold consolidates as conflicting US-Iran headlines and hawkish Fed bets cap gains
Gold (XAU/USD) trims gains after opening the week with a bullish gap as buyers lack conviction amid conflicting US-Iran headlines and caution ahead of key US employment data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,036, easing from an intraday high of $4,084.
Fed’s Williams: Affirms confidence for inflation to return to 2% target
The remarks from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President John Williams, in an interview with Reuters that took place on Friday and was released during the European trading session on Monday, signal that he was confident about inflation returning to the central bank’s 2% target.
New Zealand Dollar eases as markets focus on US-Iran talks
NZD/USD trades around 0.5870 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.11% on the day.
Breaking: US ISM Manufacturing PMI rises to 55.6 in July vs. 54 expected
Business activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerating pace in July, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 55.6 from 53.3 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 54.
Euro area: Services PMI and inflation risks – BNY
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the lack of further Fed tightening has eased global financial conditions and partially offset European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, but European inflation dynamics remain distinct from the U.S.