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India: RBI hold expectations shape policy outlook – ING
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate at 5.25% this week. They note that while June headline inflation rose on higher fuel prices, core inflation remains below target.
Euro slips back below 1.1500 as US Dollar recovers
The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as short-covering in the Greenback following the previous day’s sharp sell-off pushes EUR/USD back below 1.1500. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1488, easing from the six-week high of 1.1537 touched on Thursday.
China: Policy support balances weak PMIs – UOB
UOB economist Ho Woei Chen highlights that China’s July CFLP PMIs slipped into contraction, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing gauges signaling broad-based weakness in activity. The report notes particularly soft industrial output and services, while construction also declined.
Canadian Dollar shrugs off upbeat GDP as US Dollar stages a comeback
USD/CAD trades around 1.4045 on Friday at the time of writing, recovering from a two-week low hit on Thursday at 1.3991.
Chile Industrial Production (YoY) up to 1.3% in June from previous -7.5%
Chile Industrial Production (YoY) up to 1.3% in June from previous -7.5%
Chile Unemployment rate meets forecasts (9.4%) in June
Chile Unemployment rate meets forecasts (9.4%) in June
Japanese Yen: BoJ patience keeps wide trading range – TD Securities
TD Securities notes the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate at 1% with an 8–1 vote, as Governor Ueda delivered notably hawkish remarks. Despite this, the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaction was muted, and the TD forecasts the next 25 bps hike only in December.
Breaking: Canada's GDP expanded by 0.3% MoM in May
Canada’s economy cooled a tad in May. Indeed, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3%, adding to the previous month's 0.6% expansion (revised from 0.5%), according to data released by Statistics Canada.
Gold: Reduced Fed hike bets support prices - Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that gold briefly traded above USD 4,100 after the Fed meeting as markets pared back expectations of further rate hikes. Fed funds futures nevertheless continue to imply additional tightening, while persistent inflation is keeping those expectations alive.
United States Employment Cost Index above forecasts (0.8%) in 2Q: Actual (0.9%)
United States Employment Cost Index above forecasts (0.8%) in 2Q: Actual (0.9%)
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in May: Actual (0.3%)
Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in May: Actual (0.3%)
British Pound: Softer BoE stance seen weighing on Sterling – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Bank of England (BoE) left rates at 3.75% with a 6–3 vote, while Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against expectations of an imminent hike.
Euro: ECB September hike still base case – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists highlight that Euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose to 2.9% y/y in July, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation at 3.3%, indicating only limited evidence of meaningful second-round effects.