Market News
Stay on top of the major news, data and analysis moving forex and global financial markets.
United States Durable Goods Orders below forecasts (1.6%) in June: Actual (0.3%)
United States Durable Goods Orders below forecasts (1.6%) in June: Actual (0.3%)
Russian Ruble: CBR credibility risks after cut – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports the Russian central bank cut its key rate to 14.0% despite raising its 2026 inflation forecast and projecting stagflationary macro conditions.
Federal Reserve: Extended pause but hike risk rising – UOB
UOB strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds Target Rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and maintain a base case of an extended pause through 2026, with easing only in 2Q and 4Q 2027 once transitory inflation fades.
Oil: Lower prices ease inflation risks – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that easing Oil prices, helped by reduced Iran–US tensions, are bringing crude closer to their base case of a gradual downtrend.
Mexico Trade Balance, $ increased to $4.09B in June from previous $2.259B
Mexico Trade Balance, $ increased to $4.09B in June from previous $2.259B
Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ climbed from previous $0.638B to $3.843B in June
Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ climbed from previous $0.638B to $3.843B in June
US Dollar: Fed uncertainty tempers USD strength – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has softened as Middle East tensions ease and Brent Oil retreats below USD90, reducing energy-driven inflation fears. The correction in energy prices has slightly lowered market-implied odds of a near-term Fed rate hike.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD is looking for direction around $4,100
Gold (XAU/USD) has been consolidating gains during the European trading session, following a bullish gap at the week’s opening as a moderate improvement of risk sentiment hurt the safe-haven USD.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fiber resumes decline after testing Bearish Flag breakdown
The Euro (EUR) gives back a majority of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) after failing to rise above the intraday high of 1.1418 on Monday.
British Pound: BoE pause risks dovish repricing – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the Bank of England (BoE) to leave rates unchanged this week, with a 7–2 vote remaining the base case, although Catherine Mann could join Huw Pill and Megan Greene in supporting a rate hike.
Euro: Growth and policy doubts point lower against US Dollar – HSBC
HSBC strategists see EUR/USD at risk of moving lower as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious, data-dependent stance and refrains from signalling further rate hikes.
Gold struggles below $4,100 as US Dollar rebounds, Fed decision looms
Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday but struggles to build on its early advance as optimism over a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran fades and Oil prices recover from intraday lows.
Swedish Krona: Moderately firmer tone into year-end – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that benign Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPIF inflation leave Sweden and the Riksbank better positioned than many G10 peers to delay rate hikes despite supply disruptions from the Iran war.