Market News
Stay on top of the major news, data and analysis moving forex and global financial markets.
CEE FX: Strong Dollar and energy rebound weigh – ING
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that rising global energy prices and a stronger Dollar are pressuring Central and Eastern European currencies. EUR/PLN is near 4.420, EUR/CZK at its highest since mid-October, and EUR/HUF above 365. ING maintains a bearish view on CEE FX, expecting further downside for regional currencies as markets follow the broader global narrative ahead of local GDP data and CNB minutes.
US Dollar: Fed repricing supports stronger levels – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the US Dollar has extended gains, pushing the Dollar Index to a fresh year-to-date high as markets price a faster pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Euro holds gains against Canadian Dollar despite ECB rate hike doubts, rising oil prices
EUR/CAD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 1.5810 during European hours on Thursday. However, the currency cross may face further challenges as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure.
US labor market: Watching claims and wages – UBS
Paul Donovan at UBS points out that US initial jobless claims may draw attention in a quiet data calendar, alongside upcoming Housing data.
India: RBI seen hiking if CPI tops 6% – Commerzbank
Commerzbank Research expects India’s October CPI inflation to rise above 6% year‑on‑year, driven by high Oil prices, strong domestic demand and an unfavourable base. The report notes RBI’s projections keep inflation near the top of its target band through mid‑2027, implying further rate hikes. OIS pricing suggests cumulative tightening of nearly 90bp by February 2027.
UK GDP: Growth stays resilient – UBS
UBS economist Paul Donovan notes that UK GDP has maintained recent strength, with further gains in the third quarter driven mainly by Services. He highlights that UK consumers have seen small positive real income growth and still have scope to lower savings rates, supporting ongoing consumption.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bears testing support at previous highs around 0.8315
The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, trimming gains after a 1.7% rally over the previous two days pushed momentum indicators into overbought levels on intraday charts.
WTI Price Forecast: Downside bias persists while below 100-SMA hurdle near $86.80
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday, climbing back above the $86.00 mark during the first half of the European session.
US Dollar: Hawkish skew supports upside risks – ING
ING strategists led by Francesco Pesole note the Dollar’s rally is driven by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and stronger US inflation, pushing DXY back to April 2025 levels. They stress this is a rates-driven move, with real front-end differentials supporting Dollar momentum. The team continues to see upside risks in coming days, with PPI flagged as a potential catalyst for another USD leg higher.
USD/JPY: Verbal intervention as pair nears 160 – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG notes that USD/JPY has rebounded toward 160.00 as the stronger US Dollar and hawkish Fed repricing unwind September’s BoJ-driven correction.
Dow Jones futures remain steady amid hawkish Fed rate outlook, Nvidia leadership turmoil
Dow Jones futures remain steady around 52,580 during the European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline 0.43% to trade around 7,610, and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.92% to trade around 28,210.
Global equities: Nvidia turmoil raises chip and AI risks – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily notes that Nvidia’s board is reportedly discussing removing Jensen Huang as CEO after personal and export-control related allegations, creating turbulence for global equities given heavy US and AI concentration.
Brent: Inflation expectations rise on price rebound – Deutsche Bank
Jim Reid’s team at Deutsche Bank reports that Brent Oil prices rebounded by 1.2% after two days of declines, even without a clear headline driver. This move fed into higher inflation expectations, with 1‑year Euro inflation swaps rising to 3.02%.