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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook remains constructive above 1.4000
USD/CAD edges higher on Monday, paring earlier losses as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap. The Greenback initially weakened as a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment.
Bank of England: Higher bar seen for rate hikes - ING
ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England to keep rates on hold on 30 July and sees a prolonged pause extending through 2026. New forecasts are likely to show UK inflation peaking near 3%, below the 4% level seen as risky.
United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index increased to 1.3 in July from previous 0
United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index increased to 1.3 in July from previous 0
WTI Oil drops more than 7% as US, Iran pause strikes
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil extends its decline on Monday, trading around $82.60 per barrel at the time of writing, down 7.4% on the day.
British Pound: Growth slowdown and higher rates – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 1% in 2026 from 1.3% in 2025, with renewed inflation pressures from the war in Iran pushing inflation to 3.2%.
Euro: Recovery signals offer limited upside against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Eurozone leading indicators, including Germany’s IFO, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and ZEW, point to improving activity.
Euro trims gains as geopolitical risks, Fed outlook support US Dollar
EUR/USD reverses its early gains on Monday and moves toward filling the bullish gap at the weekly open. The pair initially rose after a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment, sent Oil prices sharply lower and weighed on the US Dollar (USD).
European Central Bank: Rate path and yields after sharp rise – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists argue July’s global fixed income selloff looks stretched, especially in Western Europe where 2-year and 10-year yields have risen about 30bp in four weeks.
Federal Reserve: Mixed signals keep rates on hold – DBS
DBS Group Research economists Taimur Baig and Chang Wei Liang argue that sticky United States (US) inflation keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), but soft consumption, weak investment and fading labour market resilience justify a pause in Fed Funds rate hikes.
US Dollar: Policy uncertainty supports USD – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu says softer June Consumer Price Index (CPI) has reduced immediate inflation concerns, but limited Fed guidance continues to support policy uncertainty and US Dollar (USD).
British Pound: Downside risks from softer UK data – HSBC
HSBC argues that GBP/USD faces renewed downside as UK disinflation and a softer labour market reduce urgency for further Bank of England tightening, even though markets still price hikes out to 2027.
Euro: Firmer against US Dollar despite slower growth – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas strategists project Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025 due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict and weaker consumption.
New Zealand Dollar hesitates despite weaker US Dollar on renewed Iran diplomacy hopes
NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 at the time of writing on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day.