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United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above forecasts (13) in July: Actual (41.4)
United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above forecasts (13) in July: Actual (41.4)
United States Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in June
United States Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in June
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 208K below forecasts (217K) in July 10
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 208K below forecasts (217K) in July 10
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 214.25K in July 10 from previous 218.75K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 214.25K in July 10 from previous 218.75K
US Dollar Index: Decline seen overdone – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the US Dollar (USD) has steadied near a one‑month low after softer United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data weighed on Fed funds pricing.
Canadian Dollar: BoC hold and guidance shift – TD Securities
TD Securities notes the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate at 2.25% and softened guidance by removing references to both rate-cut risks and consecutive hikes. Markets interpreted the statement as mildly dovish, but prior moves limited volatility.
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) below expectations (258K) in June: Actual (239K)
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) below expectations (258K) in June: Actual (239K)
European Central Bank: Hawkish hold bias – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen expects the ECB to keep the deposit rate at 2.25% in July, judging a hike as a tail risk that would require a much stronger energy shock.
United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) dipped from previous 0.933% to 0.4% in June
United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) dipped from previous 0.933% to 0.4% in June
Euro: Policy divergence and carry flows – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu says iFlow Carry is beginning to resemble its 2023 upswing. Neutral positioning in carry currencies, including those funded in the dollar, leaves room for exposures to rebuild. G10 FX attracted broad inflows, while EM FX selling was led by HUF, ZAR and KRW.
Silver tumbles as energy-driven inflation fears keep rate outlook elevated
Silver (XAG/USD) falls toward $56.70 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1.85% on the day. The white metal comes under selling pressure as renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran drive energy prices higher, reviving concerns about persistently elevated global inflation.
Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in May
Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in May
British Pound: Shorts on the run – ING
ING’s Chris Turner highlights a powerful short squeeze in Sterling, triggered by reports that Shabana Mahmood could become Andy Burnham’s chancellor, a choice seen as less fiscally expansive.