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UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves resigns as Andy Burnham reshuffles cabinet
The United Kingdom entered a new period of political uncertainty after Rachel Reeves stepped down as Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of the first cabinet reshuffle led by newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.
Euro loses momentum as US Dollar recovers from intraday lows
EUR/USD edges lower on Monday, reversing earlier gains as markets swing between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1408, easing from an intraday high of 1.1449.
Japanese Yen weakens as renewed Middle East tensions lift US Dollar
USD/JPY trades around 162.55 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. After an initial pullback in the US Dollar (USD), the pair regains momentum as geopolitical concerns return to the forefront and support the Greenback.
Canadian Dollar: Rate divergence weighs CAD against US Dollar – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists note that softer Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) is lifting USD/CAD as rate divergence remains a key driver. They argue broad US Dollar (USD) strength should limit USD/CAD downside below 1.40 and see higher Oil prices as CAD-supportive on crosses but not versus USD.
LatAm FX: Carry supports resilience against US Dollar - BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.
Gold swings around $4,000 as conflicting Middle East headlines drive markets
Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a volatile range on Monday as markets react to conflicting headlines from the Middle East. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,010, little changed on the day after climbing to an intra-day high of $4,040.
Australian Dollar: Carry and growth support potential rebound – HSBC
HSBC strategists argue AUD/USD has room to rise into 2027, supported by Australia’s relatively high cash and government bond yields, which make the Australian Dollar attractive on a carry basis within G10 FX.
Gold: Fed risks and Dollar strength cap upside – TD Securities
TD Securities’ commodity strategists, led by Bart Melek, note that Gold investors have sharply reduced long exposure as higher Oil prices from the US‑Iran conflict threaten recent disinflation progress.
Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.
New Zealand Dollar gains as softer Fed outlook offsets Middle East tensions
NZD/USD moves higher on Monday and trades around 0.5850 at the time of writing, up 0.14% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following the latest US inflation data.
Canadian Dollar: Inflation cools as BoC stays patient – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.
British Pound: Sterling shifts into broader range against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports GBP/USD slipping but lacking strong downside momentum, with intraday trade expected between 1.3420 and 1.3475. The prior bullish view has faded after a break of 1.3450 support, and the pair is now seen in a 1.3385–1.3495 range.