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Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027.
Forex Today: Markets await FOMC Minutes while tensions in Middle East escalate
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 8:
Iran says any location that supports US attacks are legitimate targets
According to the Iranian State Media, Iran's Top Joint Military Command said, “Tehran considers any location that supports United States (US) attacks on Iran as its legitimate target.” However, there has been no official confirmation from other media outlets.
Japanese Yen: Weak tone within defined trading band against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that USD/JPY is trading firmly after a sharp rise, with intraday bias tilted higher toward 162.70 while major resistance at 163.00 is expected to hold.
WTI slips below $72.00 despite renewing supply concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price inches lower after paring daily gains, trading around $71.70 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday.
United States Dollar Index holds in range amid ongoing hopes of a negotiated end to the war
The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulls back to levels a few pips shy of 101.00 during Wednesday’s European session, after being rejected at the 101.20 area earlier in the day, and has turned negative on daily charts.
Oil: Geopolitical risk lifts prices – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has jumped above $76/bbl as renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf and US strikes on Iran revive supply concerns.
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hike seen as moderate tightening – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny reports that the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after the RBNZ raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, the first increase since May 2023. He notes OIS had largely priced the move and more hikes, but MUFG expects only two additional increases by March 2027.
US Dollar: Exposure stays elevated – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that cross-border investors’ Dollar holdings remain close to multi-year highs, driven by strong United States (US) asset exposure with fewer FX hedges.
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.4200 as Oil gains, but technicals still favor upside
The USD/CAD pair loses traction to near 1.4175 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Renewed US military strikes against Iran have boosted crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD).
Czech Koruna: CNB hawkish bias supports CZK – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes Czech headline inflation fell to 1.5% year-on-year, below Czech National Bank (CNB) forecasts, with goods and energy prices soft but services still elevated.
Austria Trade Balance up to €-434.1M in April from previous €-563.3M
Austria Trade Balance up to €-434.1M in April from previous €-563.3M
Euro rises against Japanese Yen as latter underperforms across the board
The Euro (EUR) trades 0.1% higher to near 185.20 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Wednesday.