Tin tức thị trường
Cập nhật các tin tức, dữ liệu và phân tích quan trọng tác động đến forex và thị trường tài chính toàn cầu.
Federal Reserve: Forward guidance impact – Commerzbank
Pfister and Liebke analyse 30 years of FOMC meetings to separate interest rate surprises from forward guidance shocks and their effect on the US Dollar and G10 currencies.
Crude Oil: Elevated upside risk with CTAs max long – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that CTAs remain maximally long WTI Crude, Brent Crude, diesel and gasoline as attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Russia sustain a significant upside risk premium.
Euro: Support seen near 1.15 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is weaker, down about 0.5% versus the US Dollar (USD), as risk aversion supports broad USD strength. Yield spreads imply a fair value near 1.1633, while data have been light ahead of Tuesday’s ZEW survey.
Japanese Yen: Further gains favored against US Dollar - BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that recent Oil-driven market moves and sticky US Consumer Price Index (CPI) have strengthened expectations for a September Fed hike, but the futures curve already prices nearly 100 bps of tightening over twelve months.
US 10-year yield crosses 5% rubicon as Fed hike looks locked
The US 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 5% threshold on Monday for the first time since 2023, rising by more than four basis points as investors almost fully price in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the US 10-year is at 5.006%
Euro tumbles to one-month low as Fed rate hike bets dominate
EUR/USD trades under pressure on Monday, with the Euro (EUR) losing around 0.55% against the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback strengthens across the board as traders position for a possible Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike at the September 15-16 monetary policy meeting.
Canada: Contained inflation pressures support steady BoC – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation stayed at 3% year-over-year in August, with Food and energy components still elevated but easing somewhat.
Federal Reserve: One-off September hike view – ING
ING economists James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey and Chris Turner now expect a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike in September following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
British Pound: BoE risks in focus – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is softer against the Dollar but still outperforming most G10 currencies in a risk-off environment. Markets expect a hawkish hold from the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday, with a possible 25 bp hike in November.
British Pound loses ground as markets brace for Fed, BoE monetary decisions
GBP/USD extends its decline on Monday and trades around 1.3470 at the time of writing, down 0.38% on the day. The pair falls to the lower end of its monthly range, weighed down by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) ahead of several major monetary policy decisions.
Brent: Covert tanker flows may ease supply pressure - Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s FX Research team, including Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao, highlight that Brent crude has surged on Strait of Hormuz hostilities but see scope for gradual de-escalation in coming months.
Euro: ECB credibility may offer support against Dollar – DBS
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the Euro has a subtle advantage over the Dollar this week, as the European Central Bank’s recent hikes and focus on inflation underscore its institutional credibility.
Gold: CTA liquidation and dip-buying narrative – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) have turned large sellers of Gold, liquidating nearly half of their net-long exposure as markets price a Federal Reserve hike and higher energy costs.