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New Zealand Dollar: CPI supports further RBNZ hikes – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports NZD/USD has rallied toward a seven-week high after New Zealand Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised slightly on the upside versus consensus but came in just below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) projection.
Aluminium: Output declines on regional disruptions – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight a softening Aluminium supply picture. Global primary output fell in June on both monthly and yearly bases, even as first-half production stayed broadly stable.
US ADP Employment Change 4-week average drops to 16.5K
Private-sector hiring in the US has further cooled in early July. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 16.5K jobs per week in the four weeks ending July 4.
British Pound: Fiscal policy uncertainty and Sterling reaction – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Pound has modestly recovered after losses following Andy Burnham’s appointment as UK Prime Minister, while long-dated gilts remain under pressure.
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average declined to 16.5K in June 27 from previous 19.75K
United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average declined to 16.5K in June 27 from previous 19.75K
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6% (May) vs previous 0.8%
Mexico Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6% (May) vs previous 0.8%
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) fell from previous 4.4% to 1.6% in May
Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) fell from previous 4.4% to 1.6% in May
Turkish Lira: Rising inflation expectations pressure TRY – Commerzbank
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank highlights that Turkey’s market-based inflation expectations for 2026 and 12 months ahead have risen again, undermining confidence in disinflation.
British Pound extends losses nearing 1.3400 as markets await Burnham’s policies
The British Pound (GBP) is one of the weakest performers among major currencies, extending its reversal against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive week.
Oil: Geopolitical premium persists as Gulf conflict escalates – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the U.S.–Iran confrontation and Houthi threats in the Red Sea are sustaining a geopolitical premium in Brent and WTI. Brent has risen toward $88 per barrel, with risks that Strait of Hormuz disruptions further tighten Oil supply.
163.00: Why the Japanese Yen is close to year-to-date lows again
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD), lingering near year-to-date highs just below the 163.00 handle.
Gold climbs as buyers defend $4,000, hawkish Fed expectations limit upside
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Tuesday as buying interest around the $4,000 psychological level supports prices, while traders assess developments in the Middle East and their potential economic fallout. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,060, up 1.30% on the day.
Canadian Dollar: Tariffs and soft CPI pressure Loonie – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is underperforming other high-beta currencies after the Trump administration announced a 50% tariff on nearly $20 billion of Canadian imports, excluding energy and some key goods.