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British Pound falls as Oil shock boosts the US Dollar
The Pound Sterling begins the week on a lower note, as over-the-weekend developments in the Middle East fueled inflation expectations due to the rise in Oil prices. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3369, down over 0.20%.
Dow Jones Industrial Average wobbles while Washington opens a toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz
Risk aversion set Monday's tone, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average wore it better than most of its peers; the index trades near 52,525, down 117 points or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite sheds 1% and the S&P 500 gives back 0.4%.
Canadian Dollar gains as Oil prices surge on Middle East supply risks
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms most of its major peers on Monday as renewed tensions in the Middle East push Oil prices higher amid fresh risks of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Commodities: Forward curves and carry framework – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem note that the commodity complex has been resilient to Middle East tensions, with Oil gains capped and forecasts for prices at $70 by year end unchanged.
President Trump declares US ‘Guardian of the Hormuz Strait’
United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain accessible to international shipping “with or without Iran,” while outlining a new US-led security arrangement for the strategic waterway.
Denmark: Goods resilience offsets weaker services – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that overall consumer spending excluding energy in June was broadly unchanged on the month, with real spending up 4.3% year-on-year. Real retail spending on goods rose, particularly in larger consumer categories, while service spending generally declined.
Japanese Yen: Higher energy prices pressure JPY – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the Japanese Yen has weakened again, pushing USD/JPY back above 162.00 as higher energy prices and fading impact from last week’s verbal intervention weigh on the currency.
US Dollar: CPI, Fed speakers and Warsh testimony – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights a US‑centric data and policy calendar, with June CPI expected to ease to 3.8% year‑on‑year and core inflation to 2.8%.
Fed: Inflation risks and policy hold – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir highlight that the June FOMC minutes were hawkish, with most participants ready to hike if supply-driven inflation persists.
Switzerland: Federalism and direct democracy as growth drivers – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Jörg Krämer describes Switzerland’s strong federalism and extensive use of financial referenda as key to its superior economic outcomes. Cantons and municipalities compete for taxpayers by setting their own tax rates and controlling spending.
Why the Swiss Franc isn’t likely to move far from 0.9200 against the Euro
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades in a tight range against the Euro (EUR) as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) actively works to neutralize safe-haven capital inflows stemming from increased geopolitical woes.
Iran warns US against Hormuz transit
Iran’s top joint military command issued a series of warnings on Monday over the Strait of Hormuz, saying any unauthorized United States (US) transit would be confronted and cautioning neighboring countries against supporting Washington.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains range-bound with a bearish bias
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts sellers on Monday after renewed fighting between the United States (US) and Iran over the weekend revived energy-driven inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.